Baseball is a game that has a long history of statistics; ERA, RISP, and batting average to mention just three. In testing, these sorts of things would be lumped into the category of ‘metrics’.

One of the more advanced statistics is run differencial. This metric is an estimate how many games a baseball team “should” have won based on the number of runs they scored and allowed. The math is essentially a result of number of runs scored vs. number of runs allowed.

Now, the Blue Jays have have a run differential of +28 today (well, as of last night at any rate). And having played 115 games so far and having scored 28 more runs than they have allowed they should be above .500 right now (if barely) with the 6 extra wins the stats say they should have. The reality is that are a .478 team and mired way back in 4th place.

What? A metric not working as designed? That never happens. (That is sarcasm btw.) Remember, metrics are heuristics. They can, and do, fail. To really understand what is going on, you have to look at the story behind the numbers.

  • They have lost a lot of one-run games
  • Every starting pitcher has been hurt at least once this year
  • They still can’t seem to hit with RISP
  • They are in the toughest division and the schedule is unbalanced

Etc., etc.

The moral of the story, don’t blindly trust what you think a number is telling you. And even if you do trust what it is telling you, verify that it actually is telling you the truth.